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路易斯维尔大学研究表明,杰斐逊县的Covid-19案例高于报道


By Tom Latek
Kentucky Today

An ongoing study at the University of Louisville indicates the number of COVID-19 cases in Jefferson County has increased exponentially in the past two months, according to results released this week.

Researchers with the Co-Immunity Project at UofL’s Christina Lee Brown Envirome Institute say virus infections in Metro Louisville likely are far higher than the already spiking rates reported by the health department.

The latest results from the ongoing research indicate infection rates show tenfold growth between September to November, rising from 0.2% to at least 2%.

Co-Immunity says COVID-19 cases in Jefferson County are much higher than health departments have reported. (Photo from Kentucky Today)

Between Nov. 9 and 16, researchers at the University’s Center for Predictive Medicine tested samples from 2,800 individuals representing all parts of Jefferson County for both active infection and antibodies, indicating previous infection.

从这些测试结果中,项目研究人员估计,在这些日期期间,50个路易斯维尔居民被感染,并且感染的速度比公开报告的病例数近五倍,估计为0.4%的人口。

“以这种速度,多达13000路isville residents likely are infected today, many of them asymptomatic and who unwittingly may be spreading the virus,” said Dr. Aruni Bhatnagar, director of the institute. “These rates are startling and should make every person living in Louisville re-evaluate their personal precautions to avoid coronavirus, especially as we approach the holidays.”

Other key findings from the project’s latest round of testing include:

•抗体测试表明与记录病例相比,抗体存在增加了150%。

• Nearly 13,000 Louisville residents likely were infected between September and November.

• About 45,000 people in Louisville likely have had a coronavirus infection at some point since the beginning of the pandemic based on antibody testing.

• Shively and Northeastern Jefferson County currently show the highest rates of infection in the city.

The Co-Immunity Project is a series of studies to estimate the true prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing COVID-19, in Jefferson County. This phase of the project involves testing a representative sample of individuals from different areas in the city in proportion to the age and race of the population of the area.

研究人员说,这种方法在城市的不同部分地区的冠状病毒感染的广度和传播提供了更可靠的估计而不是测试那些有理由相信他们可能有病毒的人。该团队于6月份测试了其第一个社区样本,九月的第二个和本月早些时候最近。

除了随机参与者中的2%感染率外,没有邀请参加的个人表现出3.3%的感染率。这高于随机抽样,因为单独选择测试的个体更可能被暴露于病毒。

“我们鉴定的大多数具有冠状病毒感染的人没有明显的症状,这表明大量案件可能会持续未被发现,”UOFL助理·凯特博士(Rachel Keith博士)说这项研究。“我们肯定不知道,但似乎近期感染的增加可能部分是由于无症状的个体。”

The project also tested for antibodies against the virus and found the number of individuals who previously had been exposed to the virus more than doubled. Study researchers estimate that by Nov. 20, more than 45,000 individuals had been infected by the virus, rather than the 20,500 known cases documented so far. This data also suggests that approximately 15,000 individuals became infected between September and November.

Bhatnagar noted that one reason for the recent increase in cases may be the recent drop in temperature, based on the analysis of data from 55 countries.

“Low temperatures promote the spread of the virus. Hence, we were expecting the rates of infection to rise in winter, but this increase is much more than we thought. Unfortunately, things are likely to get much worse in the coming months as temperatures dip even further. Therefore, we urgently need collective action, maybe just for a few months more.”

He added, “An effective vaccine is on the horizon so it seems that there is clear hope ahead that might hearten us to make the necessary sacrifices for a little longer.”

The researchers say they plan to conduct a fourth round of testing in Jefferson County Dec. 9-14.

This study was supported in part by the City of Louisville, the James Graham Brown Foundation, the Owsley Brown Family Foundation, Foundation for a Healthy Kentucky and others.


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